Eficiência de previsibilidade orçamentária da receita pública: um estudo em municípios do estado do Piauí entre os exercícios 2015 e 2024

Abstract

This study investigated the efficiency of budget revenue forecasting in the 222 municipalities of the State of Piauí, from 2015 and 2024. The main objective was to analyze the degree of efficiency and develop a ranking of budget revenue predictability for these municipalities. The research is descriptive, with a quantitative approach, using official data provided by the TCE/PI. Based on these data, indicators of absolute error, relative error, and mean relative error were calculated, in addition to applying the multicriteria TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) technique. The results revealed that 83.2% of revenue estimates were underestimated. Despite this, 67.12% of Piauí municipalities demonstrated high levels of efficiency in budget predictability. The research contributed to demonstrating the need to improve municipal fiscal management, providing support for more effective public policies.