Predição de equações econômicas como ferramenta de gestão na pecuária leiteira a pasto

Abstract

The consumption of milk and its derivatives has undergone significant changes over the years, and with the process of globalization and information, consumers have become increasingly demanding, seeking product quality in the era of Livestock 4.0. Based on this, the objective was to evaluate the linear correlations between economic indicators and marginal return rate (MRR) and the prediction of equations in pasture-based dairy farming. Milk production was assessed every 15 days. For the marginal analysis, the partial budget method was adopted, considering the elements that vary with the milk production of the animals and with the feeding system of each tested treatment, such as pastures, concentrate (corn, soybean meal, cottonseed) and mineral salt. The costs of the concentrate were obtained by considering the consumption and the price of the ingredients collected during the experiment. As productive indicators, the following were used: milk production (MP), total pasture cost (TPC), total cost with supplement (CTS), gross revenue from milk sales (RBVL), and revenue minus feeding costs (RMCA). And the economic indicator Marginal Rate of Return (MRR). The marginal rate of return (MRR) was calculated according to the methodology proposed by Evans (2005). Correlations were made through Pearson linear correlation analysis using the “t” test, and regression was used for equation prediction, all processed by the SAEG Program – System of Statistical and Genetic Analyses, considering α equal to 0.05. The indicators, milk production (PL = -0.5433), gross revenue from milk sales (RBVL = -0.5433), and revenue minus feeding costs (RBCA = -0.5474), showed moderate and negative correlations (P<0.05) with the marginal rate of return. Total cost with pasture and total cost with concentrate (CTC = 0.2690) did not show correlations (P>0.05) with the marginal rate of return (MRR). The study of the intentions between productive indicators and the rate of return marginal appears to be correlated, allowing for the prediction of simple equations that facilitate the management of the dairy farm.