Regime geral de previdência social no Brasil: uma análise dos desequilíbrios financeiros, estruturais e contábeis (2015-2024)

Abstract

This undergraduate thesis aims to analyze the financial sustainability of Brazil’s General Social Security Regime (RGPS) between 2015 and 2024, focusing on structural, fiscal, and accounting imbalances that compromise its long-term viability. The study adopts a qualitative, descriptive, and exploratory approach, based on documentary and statistical analysis of official data from the INSS, Ministry of Social Security, Federal Revenue Service, IBGE, and other public sources. The findings indicate a consistent increase in social security expenditures and recurring annual deficits, driven by the growing number of beneficiaries, labor market informality, contribution defaults, and demographic pressures caused by population aging. The analysis also explores the impacts of Constitutional Amendment No. 103/2019, highlighting changes in eligibility criteria and benefit calculation, as well as examining the weight of social security in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the composition of the contributory base. Additionally, the study presents a comparative perspective on the Chilean and Italian pension systems, identifying limitations and lessons learned from their reform processes. It concludes that, although recent measures represent institutional progress in fiscal control, substantial structural challenges remain. These challenges require further reforms aimed at diversifying funding sources, improving the management of the social security system, and preserving the principle of social justice in the formulation of public policies.